In a span of just twenty-four months, we have experienced two different shocks to our economy, pocketbooks, and portfolios. First came COVID-19 with its global economic shutdown, financial hardships, and loss of life. Then, just as things were beginning to normalize, Russia invaded Ukraine. As of this writing the jury is still out as to Ukraine’s fate and the potential geo-political impacts from Vladimir Putin’s apparent desire to reconstruct the former Soviet Union. One thing is certain - Putin is further isolating Russia from the free world and setting the stage for crippling economic conditions from which his country may never fully recover. What does COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have to do with investing? Possibly a lot, depending on your response to such exogenous events.
Inappropriately responding to market conditions can potentially derail progress toward the attainment of your family’s most important goals. Equity markets are volatile in the short-term, but over time calm down and return to their long-term growth trajectory. That’s because when companies’ grow their revenue, earnings, and dividends their value increases. It’s that simple. The stock market reflects the value of all publicly traded companies which year-in, year-out do what they are chartered to do - to produce and deliver goods and services to consumers, businesses, and governments locally, regionally, nationally, or internationally. As our global population grows, as under-developed nations develop, and as the world’s consumers increase their spending along with their rising affluence, the goods and services needed to meet those demands must also increase. Today’s most successful public companies are remarkably innovative and resilient and represent a collection of the greatest companies in history. I would never bet against them, which is what selling represents.
Many investors know that trying to time the market rarely works out as intended and requires two correct timing calls. If you were prescient enough to sell before a market decline, you would also need to correctly time the market bottom to buy back in. Very few can make that claim. For investors with taxable portfolios, they could add insult to injury by incurring taxes on realized gains from selling, only to then sit in cash waiting for a bottom that they will not recognize until after it occurs. Once on the sidelines, the risk of failing to attain your life’s goals is so great that it is typically not worth the effort.
So back to Russia-Ukraine. What should investors do? The same thing many did during COVID-19. First, resist a fear-driven impulse to sell and next, consult with your financial advisor, re-assess your financial plan, tweak as needed, and then rest. Also, for those so inclined, the brave and frightened people of the Ukraine would certainly appreciate your prayers and support.
Stay the course.
